You know, a company can take your money in January and deliver what you bought in July. For 6 months, the cash is in the company's hands, and the bill for delivering is coming. Some of the biggest businesses in the world run on this gap.
你知道，一家公司可以在一月份收走你的钱然后在七月份才交付你购买的东西。在这六个月里，这笔现金就在公司手里，而交付的账单正在到来。世界上一些最大的企业就是靠这个时间差运转的。
The clever part is getting paid early. The hard part is surviving everything you promised to do afterward. Number one, airlines sell tomorrow's seats today. An airline can fill much of a summer flight while it's still winter.
巧妙之处在于提前拿到钱。困难之处在于挺过一切你之后承诺要做的事。第一，航空公司今天卖明天的座位。航空公司可以在仍是冬季时就售出夏季航班的许多座位。
Delta calls the money from tickets for future flights an air traffic liability. That word liability is doing a lot of work here. The passenger has paid, but the airline still owes the passenger a trip, or under the applicable rules and ticket terms, a refund or travel credit.
达美航空将未来航班的机票收入称为空中交通负债。这里的“负债”一词含义颇深。乘客已经付了钱，但航空公司仍然欠乘客一次行程，或者根据适用的规则和机票条款，退款或旅行积分。
The airline can use incoming cash to help run the business before the flight takes off. But it also has to keep enough money and capacity to make good on the tickets itself. A full booking screen is a promise, not a completed sale.
航空公司可以利用收到的现金来帮助运营业务，在航班起飞之前。但它也必须保留足够的资金和运力，以自己兑现这些机票。满座的预订屏幕是一种承诺，而不是已完成的销售。
The timing gives airlines a useful clue about demand. If seats for one Friday are moving quickly and the following Tuesday is barely selling, prices can change while there's still time to fill the plane.
这一时机为航空公司提供了有关需求的有用线索。如果某个周五的座位销售很快而接下来的周二却几乎卖不动，价格就可以在仍有时间填满飞机时发生变化。
Seats are a pretty unusual inventory. A shoe can sit on a shelf until next month, but an empty seat disappears the moment the aircraft leaves. Selling early helps the airline estimate where to put planes, crews, and prices.
座位是一种相当特殊的库存。一双鞋可以放在货架上直到下个月，但一个空座位在飞机起飞的那一刻就消失了。提前销售有助于航空公司估算把飞机投放在哪里，机组人员和价格。
That information can be as valuable as receiving the cash. Look at flights with 200 seats. If 150 are sold 2 months ead, the airline has collected money from 150 customers. While many of the flights costs are still ead, it might still need to pay for fuel, staff, airport charges, maintenance, and handling.
这些信息可能与收到现金一样有价值。看看有200个座位的航班。如果提前两个月售出150个座位，航空公司已经从150名乘客那里收到了钱。虽然许多航班成本仍未确定，它可能仍需支付燃油费、员工工资、机场费用、维护费和搬运费。
And some of those costs arrive whether the last 50 seats sell or not. A cheaper seat sold early can sometimes be useful because it brings cash in and removes the risk of flying with that seat empty.
而且其中一些费用无论最后50个座位是否售出都会产生。提前售出的较便宜座位有时可能有用，因为它能带来现金收入，并消除该座位空置飞行的风险。
But if the airline fills every seat too cheaply, the plane can leave full and still disappoint the company. Getting paid first doesn't make the costs go away. And there's another side to the advanced sale.
但如果航空公司把每个座位都卖得太便宜，飞机满员起飞，公司却仍可能失望。先收到钱并不能让成本消失。而提前售票还有另一面。
If a flight is cancelled, the liability cannot be wished off the balance sheet. No passengers need to be moved, credited, or refunded as required. A sudden rush of refunds can put pressure on cash that looked available the week before.
如果航班被取消，这笔负债就不能从资产负债表上抹去。无需转移任何乘客，也无需按要求进行补偿或退款。突然涌现的退款潮可能给现金带来压力，而就在前一周这些现金看起来还可用。
We saw how serious that timing problem can become when travel demand collapses. The money arrived in one period while the promise had to be dealt with in another. And you don't need an airline to use the useful part of this idea.
我们看到了这个时间问题会变得多么严重当旅行需求崩溃时。钱在一个时期到账而承诺却必须在另一个时期兑现。而你不需要一家航空公司也能运用这个想法中有用的部分。
A trainer can sell a limited set of appointments next month. A small event can sell places before paying for every final detail. The number of places should be real. The dates should be clear and the cost of delivering them should be known.
培训师可以在下个月出售有限数量的预约。小型活动可以出售名额在为每个最终细节付款之前。名额数量应该是真实的。日期应该明确交付成本也应该是已知的。
The sale gives you both funding and a real demand. But if you mistake those payments for money already earned, well, that same model turns into a trap. Number two, concert promoters sell the date before the show.
销售既为你提供资金，也带来真实需求。但如果你把这些付款误认为已经赚到的钱，那么，同样的模式就会变成陷阱。第二，演唱会主办方会在演出前出售门票。
A concert can sell out months before anyone walks into the venue. That puts advanced ticket cash into the event business while the show is still being built. Live Nation reports ticket money for its concerts before the event as deferred revenue.
一场演唱会在还有人走进场馆的几个月前就可能售罄。这为演出行业带来了预售票款，而此时演出还在筹备中。Live Nation将其演唱会的门票收入在活动前记为递延收入。
Then it records the concert revenue when the event actually happens. This is a clean way to see the difference between cash received and work completed. Be careful about who actually holds the money, though.
然后它记录演唱会收入当活动实际发生时。这是一种清晰的方式来看收到的现金与已完成工作之间的区别。不过，要注意究竟是谁实际持有这笔钱。
A ticketing company might collect the payment for a venue or a promoter and owe most of it to that client. Live Nation separately reports cash it holds for ticketing clients. So, that money cannot be treated as though the ticketing platform made it all.
票务公司可能会代表场馆收取款项，或代表演出主办方，并将其中大部分欠给该客户。Live Nation 单独报告现金其为票务客户持有的现金。所以，这笔钱不能被视为尽管票务平台赚取了全部。
For a promoter controlling its own event, the advanced ticket sale is tied to an obligation to put on the show. For a platform processing somebody else's tickets, much of that balance belongs to somebody else.
对于控制自己活动的 promoter，预售票与一项义务绑定即举办演出。对于处理他人门票的平台，其中大部分余额属于其他人。
Both businesses touch the ticket, but their economics are different. A promoter can use early sales to learn whether a show needs more marketing. A date that sells quickly might support an extra show in the same city.
两家企业都涉及票务，但它们的经济模式不同。演出推广方可以利用早期销售来了解一场演出是否需要更多营销。销售迅速的门票场次可能支持在同一城市加演一场。
A slow date gives warning while there's still time to adjust the plan. Ticket sales can also help finance the long stretch between announcing an event and opening the doors. The venue, crew, equipment, advertising, insurance, travel, and artist agreement all need attention before the audience arrives.
缓慢的日期会发出警告趁着还有时间调整计划。门票销售也能帮助为漫长的时段提供资金在宣布活动与开门迎客之间。场地、工作人员、设备、广告、保险、差旅和艺人协议都需要关注在观众到来之前。
The audience pays for a finished evening. The promoter has to assemble it. Now, here's the dangerous number, though. A million in ticket sales. Sounds like the event made a million dollars, right?
观众花钱是为了享受一个完美的夜晚。主办方必须把它组织起来。然而，现在到了危险的数量。一百万的票房收入。听起来这个活动赚了一百万美元，对吧？
But it says nothing yet about the artist guarantee, production, venue fees, taxes, refunds, or the share owed to partners. An artist might also receive an advance before the show. If the event is postponed, those costs and promises don't neatly disappear.
但还没有提到艺人的保底酬劳、制作费、场地费、税费、退款，或应付给合作方的分成。艺术家也可能在演出前收到预付款。如果活动被推迟，这些成本和承诺并不会轻易消失。
No, the timeline can stretch while the customers payment is already sitting in the system. That's why the real question is how much cash is free after the show is delivered, not how much came through the ticket page.
不，时间线可能拉长而客户的付款已经留在系统中了。所以真正的问题是有多少现金是自由的在演出交付之后，而不是有多少是从售票页面进来的。
The smaller version is easy to picture. A business sells 100 places for a workshop in 2 months. At $100 a place, the account receives $10,000. But if the venue, instructors, equipment, fees, and refunds could consume $8,000, well, there is no $10,000 windfall here.
较小的版本很容易想象。一家企业在2个月内为一个研讨会售出100个名额。每人100美元，账户就能收到10,000美元。但如果场地、教练、设备、费用，以及退款可能消耗8,000美元，那么，这里就没有10,000美元的意外之财。
This is an event to deliver and at best a remaining margin. Advanced sales can remove a lot of the guessing, but they can also expose weak planning faster than selling at the door.
这是一个需要交付的活动，最多只剩下利润。高级销售可以消除很多猜测，但它们也能更快地暴露出薄弱环节，比上门销售还要快。
And before we move on here, a quick moment to highlight our own version of number three, the Alux app. Designed to be like a high performance coach in your pocket, insightful daily discussions, entire courses led by industry experts, and a community where you can network with other Aluxers building alongside you.
在我们继续之前，快速花点时间强调一下我们自己的第三点，Alux应用。设计得像你口袋里的高性能教练，富有洞见的每日讨论，由行业专家主导的完整课程，以及一个可以与其他Aluxers交流的社区与你并肩建设。
Start your free trial today at alux.com/app. And after your trial ends, you'll get 25% off your annual membership when you scan this QR code to sign up. I'll see you on the inside.
今天就在alux.com/app开始你的免费试用。试用期结束后，你的年度会员资格可享75折优惠扫描此二维码注册即可。我们内部见。
But in the meantime, let's get to it. Number three, software companies sell a year in advance. A customer can pay for a year of software on day one. The software company receives the payment, then has to keep the service working for the next 12 months.
但与此同时，让我们开始吧。第三，软件公司提前一年销售。客户可以在第一天支付一年的软件费用。软件公司收到付款，然后必须在接下来的12个月内保持服务正常运行。
Adobe's filings describe payments received before a subscription revenue is recognized. The company recognizes subscription revenue across the service period rather than pretending the entire year was delivered on the first day.
Adobe的文件描述了已收到的付款在订阅收入确认之前。公司在服务期间确认订阅收入而不是假装整个一年的服务在第一天就已交付。
And the accounting follows the promise. An annual plan charges the cash pattern. Take a service that costs $20 a month. 12 monthly payments bring in $20 at a time, but an annual payment of $200 brings in less total money than the 12 full price monthly payments, but it arrives at the start.
会计处理遵循这一承诺。年度计划按现金收款模式计费。以一项每月收费20美元的服务为例。12次月度付款每次带来20美元，但一次性支付200美元的年费所带来总收入更少，相比12次全价月度付款，但它一开始就到账。
That earlier cash might help to pay for product development, support, and customer acquisition. The discount has a cost. The business gives up $40 in exchange for earlier payment and a customer commitment.
这笔提前到账的现金可能有助于支付产品开发、支持和客户获取的费用。折扣是有代价的。商家放弃40美元以换取提前付款和客户的承诺。
Whether that's a good deal or not depends on the cost of keeping the service running and how long customers would have stayed anyway. And there's a reason software makes this model attractive.
这笔交易是否划算取决于维持服务运行的成本，以及客户本来会留存多久。软件使这种模式具有吸引力是有原因的。
One customer logging in doesn't require a new physical product to be built from scratch. The company still pays for servers, security, support, and improvements. But adding a subscriber is different from manufacturing and shipping another machine.
一个客户登录并不需要从零开始构建一个新的实体产品。公司仍需支付服务器、安全、支持和改进的费用。但增加一个订阅用户不同于制造并运送另一台机器。
If the product works reliably, many customers can receive service from the same underlying system. And that makes a large advanced payment base powerful. It doesn't make it free, though.
如果产品运行可靠，许多客户就能从同一个底层系统获得服务。而这使得庞大的预付款用户群具有强大力量。不过，这并不意味着它是免费的。
Just imagine a small company celebrating 1,000 annual subscribers at $200 each. It collects $200,000. If those people have 11 months of service left, the company can't sensibly spend all $200,000 on a launch party, a larger office, or a new team.
想象一下一家小公司庆祝达到1,000名年度订阅者每人200美元。它收入200,000美元。如果那些人还有11个月的服务期，公司就不能理智地把全部20万美元花在启动派对上，更大的办公室，或者一个新团队。
No, it needs enough to operate throughout the year. Even if new sales slow down, a subscription business can look healthy while new annual payments keep replacing cash spent on old promises.
不，它需要足够的资金来维持全年的运营。即使新销售放缓，订阅业务看起来仍然健康，只要新的年度付款不断替代花在旧承诺上的现金。
When renewals weaken, that weakness becomes visible very quickly. The cash in the bank and the revenue earned so far tell different stories. Customers also notice the quality of the promise.
当续约减少时，这种疲软会很快显现出来。银行里的现金和已赚取的收入到目前为止讲述了不同的故事。客户也会注意到承诺的质量。
If updates stop, support disappears, or the product fails when they need it, an annual contract will not create loyalty. The renewal is the real exam. Getting someone to pay early might give the company time to improve, but it also gives that customer months to decide whether the service was worth paying for again.
如果更新停止，支持消失，或者在他们需要时产品出现故障，年度合同不会产生忠诚度。续约才是真正的考验。让客户提前付款或许能给公司时间去改进，但这也给了那位客户数月时间来决定这项服务是否值得再次付费。
A solo creator or small business can use the same structure with a paid research service, a software tool, or a membership with clear recurring benefit. The offer has to describe what arrives during the year.
个人创作者或小型企业可以使用相同的结构，搭配付费研究服务、软件工具，或具有明确持续权益的会员资格。该报价必须说明一年内会提供什么。
Selling access to a vague future community is much easier than making that community valuable every month. Advanced payment works best when the delivery system is already strong enough to carry the promise.
出售一个模糊的未来社区的访问权要比让该社区每个月都有价值容易得多。预付款效果最好当配送系统已经足够强大足以承载这份承诺时。
Number four, gift card sellers get the money before you choose. A gift card is a sale of future choice. The customer gives the business money now and decides later what to buy. Starbucks records loaded card balances as a liability before redemption.
第四，礼品卡卖家在你做出选择之前就已经拿到了钱。礼品卡是对未来选择权的一种售卖。客户现在先把钱付给商家之后再决定买什么。星巴克将已充值的卡内余额记为负债在兑付之前。
When a customer uses the balance, the company recognizes the corresponding sale under its accounting rules. Until then, the card represents drinks and food the company may still have to provide.
当客户使用该余额时，公司确认相应的销售根据其会计规则。在那之前，这张卡代表着公司可能仍需提供的饮品和食物。
This model is different from a concert ticket. The concert has a fixed date and a specific seat. A gift card holder can arrive at any of the thousands of days and choose from a changing menu that makes demand less predictable at the individual level.
这种模式不同于演唱会门票。演唱会有固定的日期和特定的座位。礼品卡持有者可以在数千天中的任何一天到来并从不断变化的菜单中选择这使得需求更难以预测在个人层面上。
Across millions of customers, patterns become easier to estimate. The company can see how much value is loaded, how often people return, and how much is spent when they do. The balance also keeps future spending pointed toward that business.
在数百万客户中，模式变得更容易估计。公司可以看到加载了多少价值，人们多久回来一次，以及他们回来时花了多少钱。余额还能确保未来的消费仍然流向那家店。
Say someone loads $50 onto a card. The shop receives $50 without making a drink that minute, but later the customer buys an $8 order. There's still $42 of value that may be used on that card.
假设有人往卡里充值50美元。店铺立刻收到50美元，但那一刻并没有做出一杯饮品，但之后这位顾客点了一份8美元的订单。那张卡上仍有价值42美元可供使用。
The cash arrived in one lump while the obligation is released in smaller pieces. That's useful if the shop manages its cash well, but it becomes a problem if the shop spends the full $50, then can't afford the staff and ingredients needed when the customer returns.
现金是一次性到账的，而债务却是分次清偿的。如果店铺能妥善管理现金，这倒是有用，但如果店铺把50美元全花光了，问题就来了，到顾客再来时，就付不起员工和食材的费用了，而这些正是那时所需要的。
And some gift card balances are never fully used. Accountants call that breakage. It can become income under applicable accounting rules and laws based on expected redemption and any unclaimed property obligations.
而且有些礼品卡余额永远不会被完全使用。会计师称之为沉淀余额。根据适用的会计规则和基于预期兑换情况的法律，以及任何无人认领财产的义务，它可以成为收入。
This should never be the whole business plan, though. Customers can come back. Laws differ, and a reputation for making balances hard to use is a terrible way to sell the next card.
不过，这绝不该是完整的商业计划。顾客可以回来。法律各不相同，而让人难以使用余额的名声是推销下一张卡的糟糕方式。
The main value of a gift card is early cash plus a reason for the customer to return. Any unused balance is a limited conditional extra. There's also a marketing advantage that ordinary discounts do not have.
礼品卡的主要价值在于提前获得现金外加一个让顾客回头的理由。任何未使用的余额都是一种有限的有条件附加价值。此外还有一种营销优势是普通折扣所不具备的。
A $10 discount cuts what the business receives on a sale today. A $50 gift card brings in $50 today and usually brings the customer back for a later visit. The customer might add their own money when the purchase costs more than the card balance.
10美元的折扣会减少商家今天从一笔销售中获得的收入。一张50美元的礼品卡今天能带来50美元的收入，并且通常会让顾客之后再次光顾。顾客可能会自己额外添钱，当购买金额超过卡内余额时。
That extra spending is possible, not guaranteed. The business still has to earn the visit and deliver a product that people want. A local salon, restaurant, or independent shop can sell gift cards without building a global app, but it should know its margin, honor the balance, and keep records.
这笔额外支出是可能的，但并非保证。商家仍然需要赢得顾客的光顾并提供人们想要的产品。一家本地沙龙、餐厅或独立商店都可以销售礼品卡而无需构建一个全球性应用，但它应该了解自己的利润率，兑付卡内余额，并保留记录。
A card sold before a holiday is a commitment after the holiday. The sale is useful because the shop gets funding before the customer picks a service, but the shop doesn't earn that money properly until it provides that service.
节前售出的卡是对节后服务的承诺。节后履行。这种销售有用，因为商店在顾客选择服务之前就获得了资金，但在提供服务之前，商店并未真正赚到那笔钱。
And number five, product makers take orders before making the product. Some businesses sell a product before it exists at scale. A pre-order can tell a maker how many units people will actually pay for.
第五点，产品制造商在制造产品之前先接受订单。有些企业会在产品大规模问世之前就将其出售。预售可以告诉制造商人们实际愿意为多少件产品付费。
A crowdfunding campaign can collect pledges toward a promised product after meeting its funding conditions. Instead of guessing that 10,000 people might want the item, the maker can see who has committed the money.
众筹活动可以收集认捐用于承诺的产品在满足其融资条件之后。与其猜测可能有一万人想要这件商品，制造商可以看到谁已经承诺付钱。
And that is a much stronger signal than likes on a photo. Take a company making a specialized backpack. It has a prototype, but the factory wants a minimum order of 2,000 units. Making that order without buyers could leave the company with a warehouse full of bags and a bill it can't pay.
这比照片上的点赞要强得多的信号。以一家制造专用背包的公司为例。它有一个原型，但工厂要求最低订购2,000件。在没有买家的情况下下这个订单，可能会让公司的仓库堆满包袋，还有一张付不起的账单。
But selling pre-orders can help to cover the production deposit and show whether demand is real. The order count might also reveal which colors or sizes people want most. The cash solves one problem and creates a deadline.
但预售可以帮助支付生产定金，并显示需求是否真实。订单数量还可能揭示人们最想要哪些颜色或尺码。这笔现金解决了一个问题，却也制造了一个截止期限。
The factory might quote one price, then add up costs for tooling, packaging, tests, freight duties, and storage. Payment processing and the selling platform can take a share, too. Some customers will need refunds or replacements.
工厂可能报出一个价格，然后加上模具费用，包装、测试、运费关税，以及仓储费用。支付处理和销售平台也可以抽成，同样如此。有些客户会需要退款或换货。
A simple-looking product can also fail a quality check or take longer than planned to ship. If a maker prices only the unit coming off the production line, a successful campaign can lose money as the order count grows.
看似简单的产品也可能无法通过质量检查或者发货时间比计划更长。如果制造商只对下线时的单件产品定价，那么一场成功的营销活动可能会亏钱，随着订单数量的增长。
More customers mean more promises to fulfill. And that's the point where an advanced payment business often gets into trouble. It uses the money from a second launch to finish the first launch.
更多客户意味着更多需要兑现的承诺。而这正是预付款业务常常陷入困境的地方。它用第二次发售的钱来完成第一次发售。
Then it needs a third launch to cover the second. From the outside, sales keep growing, but inside, old orders are eating the new cash. The useful test is to set aside the full expected cost of completing orders already sold, including a buffer for mistakes.
然后它需要第三次发售来填补第二次。从表面上看，销售额持续增长，但内里，旧订单正在吞噬新的现金。有用的检验方法是预留出完成已售订单的全部预期成本，完成已售订单的包括为失误预留的缓冲。
Only the amount left after that is available for growth. An order book is valuable when the orders can be fulfilled at the promised quality and price. Pre-orders also need clear terms, too.
只有在此之后剩下的金额才可用于增长。订单簿是有价值的，当订单能够以承诺的质量和价格完成时。预售也需要明确的条款。
In the US, the FTC's rule for internet merchandise orders require sellers who cannot ship within the promised time to seek the buyer's agreement to a delay or provide a prompt refund.
在美国，联邦贸易委员会关于互联网商品订单的规定要求卖家如果无法在承诺的时间内发货需征得买家同意延期或提供及时退款。
Crowdfunding has its own platform rules and uncertainty around estimated delivery. Putting a date on a page doesn't make a factory run on time. A good business gives buyers a realistic schedule, updates them when it changes, and keeps the money needed to make things right.
众筹有其自身的平台规则以及预计交付时间的不确定性。在页面上写个日期并不能让工厂按时运转。好的企业会给买家一个切合实际的时间表，在有变化时通知他们，并留出把事情办妥所需的资金。
But this approach is not limited to gadgets. A furniture maker can take a deposit for a custom table. A publisher can sell a print run ead of time. A small food brand can collect orders before committing to a production batch, subject to rules that apply to its own product.
但这种方法并不局限于小玩意儿。家具制造商可以收取定制桌子的定金。出版商可以提前出售印量。小型食品品牌可以收集订单然后再决定投入生产批次，但须遵守适用于其自身产品的规则。
In each case, customers help prove demand, and they help fund supply. The maker takes on the job of turning that confidence into something delivered. Now, all five of these business models collect money while part of that work is still ead.
在每种情况下，客户帮助证明需求，并且他们帮助资助供应。制造者承担起将那份信心转化为交付成果的工作。现在，这五种商业模式都在收钱，而部分工作尚未完成。
Airlines sell a seat on a future flight. Promoters sell an evening that has yet to happen. Software companies owe months of service. Gift cards owe future purchases. And pre-orders owe the product itself.
航空公司出售未来航班的座位。promoters 出售尚未到来的夜晚。软件公司欠着数月的服务。礼品卡欠的是未来的购买。而预购欠的是产品本身。
The cash can make growth easier to fund, but the promise beside it, that's what really determines whether that growth is real. All right, that's a wrap on this one, Alexer. We'll see you back here next time.
现金能让增长更容易获得资金，但它旁边的承诺，才是真正决定这种增长是否真实的东西。好了，这个就到这里，Alexer。我们下次再见。
Until then, take care.
在那之前，保重。
